KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian commander Oleksiy Tarasenko witnessed a frightening shift last month in Russia’s efforts to punch through Kyiv’s defense of the industrial region known as the Donbas.
Standing against Russia’s unyielding advance in the strategic front-line town of Chasiv Yar, he noticed that, instead of making typical light infantry assaults, Moscow’s forces were taking brazen risks by launching battalion- and platoon-sized attacks, sometimes with up to 10 combat vehicles.
His men destroyed up to 80 tanks in the weeks that followed, but it did not slow the enemy. The confidence of the Russian military reflected the Kremlin’s knowledge that Ukraine’s ammunition supplies were dwindling as the U.S. dawdled over approving more military aid.
Saturday’s passage by the U.S. House of Representatives of a much-awaited $61 billion package for Ukraine puts the country a step closer to an infusion of new firepower that will be rushed to the front line to fight Moscow’s latest attacks. But the clock is ticking, with Russia using all its might to achieve its most significant gains since its invasion by a May 9 deadline, when Moscow commemorates World War II Victory Day. In the meantime, Kyiv has no choice but to wait for replenishment.
Seeing a window of opportunity, Russia has seized the momentum on the battlefield and forced Kyiv’s forces to cede tactically significant territory, one painful meter (yard) after another.
Wave after wave of mechanized units came for Tarasenko’s brigade. Protected under an umbrella of attack drones and artillery fire, they reached the foot of Chasiv Yar, which is the gateway to Ukraine’s defensive backbone in the Donetsk region.
“They concentrated disproportionately enormous resources in this direction,” said Tarasenko, deputy commander of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade. “The most difficult thing is to cope with this constant onslaught from the enemy, which does not change, even though the enemy is losing a lot of military equipment and soldiers.”
The Pentagon has said it could get weapons moving to Ukraine within days if the Senate and President Joe Biden give final approval to the aid package. But experts and Ukrainian lawmakers said it could take weeks for the assistance to reach troops, giving Russia more time to degrade Ukrainian defenses.
The seven-month effort to pass the package effectively held Ukraine hostage to the internal politics of its biggest ally. It also raised concerns about how the shifting sands of American politics will influence future military support.
European partners cannot match the volume and scope of American assistance, which remains Kyiv’s main hope to win the war. But that support has come with red lines, including rules that forbid using Western-supplied weapons for strikes inside the Russian Federation. Some Ukrainian officials argue that such limits handicap their ability to cripple the enemy’s more robust capabilities.
Assuming the assistance arrives in the next two months, plans are afoot for a potential late-summer offensive. Analysts have argued that future support should not count on one big decisive battle, but a sustained strategy over many years.
But first, Ukraine must hold off Russia’s attempts to break defensive lines and entrenched positions.
Since January, the Kremlin has seized 360 square kilometers (140 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, roughly the size of the American city of Detroit, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.